Texas Holdem Starting Hand Odds Of Winning

Texas Holdem Pre Flop Odds (10 Player Game) This table shows the 169 different hole card combinations (starting hands) in Texas Holdem. The numbers are based on 1.5 billion trials of a ring game (10 players) where everyone calls the blinds then checks to the showdown. Texas Holdem Poker Hand Odds are vital to understand if you want to be a winner while playing poker in the long run. Its not about the current hand, the current game or even the entire season, its the maths of whether you will make money over the period of your poker career. 10 Best and Worst Starting Poker Hands. One of the most important thins to learn in texas hold em is which hands are worth playing and which ones you would be better off folding. When it comes to every hand its all about the worth of those two down cards you’re first dealt.

A pair of aces is the best pre-flop hand in Texas Hold'em Poker

In the poker game of Texas hold 'em, a starting hand consists of two hole cards, which belong solely to the player and remain hidden from the other players. Five community cards are also dealt into play. Betting begins before any of the community cards are exposed, and continues throughout the hand. The player's 'playing hand', which will be compared against that of each competing player, is the best 5-card poker hand available from his two hole cards and the five community cards. Unless otherwise specified, here the term hand applies to the player's two hole cards, or starting hand.

  • 2Limit hand rankings

Essentials[edit]

There are 1326 distinct possible combinations of two hole cards from a standard 52-card deck in hold 'em, but since suits have no relative value in this poker variant, many of these hands are identical in value before the flop. For example, AJ and AJ are identical in value, because each is a hand consisting of an ace and a jack of the same suit.

Therefore, there are 169 non-equivalent starting hands in hold 'em, which is the sum total of : 13 pocket pairs, 13 × 12 / 2 = 78 suited hands and 78 unsuited hands (13 + 78 + 78 = 169).

These 169 hands are not equally likely. Hold 'em hands are sometimes classified as having one of three 'shapes':


  • Pairs, (or 'pocket pairs'), which consist of two cards of the same rank (e.g. 99). One hand in 17 will be a pair, each occurring with individual probability 1/221 (P(pair) = 3/51 = 1/17).

An alternative means of making this calculation

First Step As confirmed above.

There are 2652 possible combination of opening hand.

Second Step

There are 6 different combos of each pair. 9h9c, 9h9s, 9h9d, 9c9s, 9c9d, 9d9s

To calculate the odds of being dealt a pair

2652 (possible opening hands) divided by 12 (the number of any particular pair being dealt. As above)

2652/12 = 221


  • Suited hands, which contain two cards of the same suit (e.g. A6). Four hands out of 17 will be suited, and each suited configuration occurs with probability 2/663 (P(suited) = 12/51 = 4/17).
  • Offsuit hands, which contain two cards of a different suit and rank (e.g. KJ). Twelve out of 17 hands will be nonpair, offsuit hands, each of which occurs with probability 2/221 (P(offsuit non-pair) = 3*(13-1)/51 = 12/17).

It is typical to abbreviate suited hands in hold 'em by affixing an 's' to the hand, as well as to abbreviate non-suited hands with an 'o' (for offsuit). That is,

QQ represents any pair of queens,
KQ represents any king and queen,
AKo represents any ace and king of different suits, and
JTs represents any jack and ten of the same suit.

There are 25 starting hands with a probability of winning at a 10-handed table of greater than 1/7.[1]

Texas Holdem Odds And Probabilities

Limit hand rankings[edit]

Some notable theorists and players have created systems to rank the value of starting hands in limit Texas hold'em. These rankings do not apply to no limit play.

Sklansky hand groups[edit]

David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth[2] assigned in 1999 each hand to a group, and proposed all hands in the group could normally be played similarly. Stronger starting hands are identified by a lower number. Hands without a number are the weakest starting hands. As a general rule, books on Texas hold'em present hand strengths starting with the assumption of a nine or ten person table. The table below illustrates the concept:

Chen formula[edit]

The 'Chen Formula' is a way to compute the 'power ratings' of starting hands that was originally developed by Bill Chen.[3]

Highest Card
Based on the highest card, assign points as follows:
Ace = 10 points, K = 8 points, Q = 7 points, J = 6 points.
10 through 2, half of face value (10 = 5 points, 9 = 4.5 points, etc.)
Pairs
For pairs, multiply the points by 2 (AA=20, KK=16, etc.), with a minimum of 5 points for any pair. 55 is given an extra point (i.e., 6).
Suited
Add 2 points for suited cards.
Closeness
Subtract 1 point for 1 gappers (AQ, J9)
2 points for 2 gappers (J8, AJ).
4 points for 3 gappers (J7, 73).
5 points for larger gappers, including A2 A3 A4
Add an extra point if connected or 1-gap and your highest card is lower than Q (since you then can make all higher straights)

Phil Hellmuth's: 'Play Poker Like the Pros'[edit]

Phil Hellmuth's 'Play Poker Like the Pros' book published in 2003.

TierHandsCategory
1AA, KK, AKs, QQ, AKTop 12 Hands
2JJ, TT, 99
388, 77, AQs, AQ
466, 55, 44, 33, 22, AJs, ATs, A9s, A8sMajority Play Hands
5A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, A3s, A2s, KQs, KQ
6QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65sSuited Connectors

Statistics based on real online play[edit]

Statistics based on real play with their associated actual value in real bets.[4]

TierHandsExpected Value
1AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs2.32 - 0.78
2AQs, TT, AK, AJs, KQs, 990.59 - 0.38
3ATs, AQ, KJs, 88, KTs, QJs0.32 - 0.20
4A9s, AJ, QTs, KQ, 77, JTs0.19 - 0.15
5A8s, K9s, AT, A5s, A7s0.10 - 0.08
6KJ, 66, T9s, A4s, Q9s0.08 - 0.05
7J9s, QJ, A6s, 55, A3s, K8s, KT0.04 - 0.01
898s, T8s, K7s, A2s0.00
987s, QT, Q8s, 44, A9, J8s, 76s, JT(-) 0.02 - 0.03

Nicknames for starting hands[edit]

Texas Hold'em Poker Odds

In poker communities, it is common for hole cards to be given nicknames. While most combinations have a nickname, stronger handed nicknames are generally more recognized, the most notable probably being the 'Big Slick' - Ace and King of the same suit, although an Ace-King of any suit combination is less occasionally referred to as an Anna Kournikova, derived from the initials AK and because it 'looks really good but rarely wins.'[5][6] Hands can be named according to their shapes (e.g., paired aces look like 'rockets', paired jacks look like 'fish hooks'); a historic event (e.g., A's and 8's - dead man's hand, representing the hand held by Wild Bill Hickok when he was fatally shot in the back by Jack McCall in 1876); many other reasons like animal names, alliteration and rhyming are also used in nicknames.

Notes[edit]

  1. ^No-Limit Texas Hold'em by Angel Largay
  2. ^David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth (1999). Hold 'em Poker for Advanced Players. Two Plus Two Publications. ISBN1-880685-22-1
  3. ^Hold'em Excellence: From Beginner to Winner by Lou Krieger, Chapter 5, pages 39 - 43, Second Edition
  4. ^http://www.pokerroom.com/poker/poker-school/ev-stats/total-stats-by-card/
  5. ^Aspden, Peter (2007-05-19). 'FT Weekend Magazine - Non-fiction: Stakes and chips Las Vegas and the internet have helped poker become the biggest game in town'. Financial Times. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
  6. ^Martain, Tim (2007-07-15). 'A little luck helps out'. Sunday Tasmanian. Retrieved 2010-01-10.
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Texas_hold_%27em_starting_hands&oldid=925603601'
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